10 days to go

posted from my Nokia E90...
Barak Obama will drop in in the first week - great.
Obama offered 17% cut re 2005 = ~5% re 1990 - not great but a step in the right direction, and a good shot in the arm for the conference.
China now weighing in with a serious offer - good, although with qualifications!
India still has 600m people without electricity - think about that.
Aussie ETS floundering - do we need something this compromised? Only a day to see what we end up with....

14 days to go

Excitement is definitely building - perhaps for some of the wrong reasons. (I feel that unfortunately the press is already trumpeting "defeat", although that is a difficult concept when any progress is welcome, and probable!)
My understanding is that although a formal agreement - or even framework - will not result from this conference, significant efforts are being made to make progress, and we must look to a further 12-18 months before significant legal structures and intrusnments can be anticipated.
For instance, the African Group, representing some of the Least Developed Countries (LDC), are understandably extremely keen on obtaining meaningful emission cuts by the Annex 1 countries, but funding mitigation and adaptation to the tune of ~$160Bn remains a major stumbling block.
We must anticipate that there is a real will to progress, and at this stage, anticipate President Obama's possible presence may provide some additional push - even without a formal US agreement.