Sunday, December 20, 2009

Sunday, I think, we're beached...

From Hong Kong, via Nokia

After spending Saturday at CPH airport, reading the major UK weekend editions, and now checking the press releases and general comment into which I am plugged, I think we must conclude that we're going to have to do "this" ourselves.

It would have been easier with an agreed Accord, including cuts, fundng and so on, but we can't wait. No need for panic, we do have e.g. REDD in the picture, but nothing much has changed, especially in Oz.

Pleased to see the first round of ASI grants out, but we have a very long way to go. 2010 will offer a serious opportunity for us to move our society forward, but now is not the time for a faint heart.

Thanks for looking over my shoulder - I intend to do a couple more posts in the next few days to clean up the housekeeping, but then a short break before we get back into it.

Cheers
Pete

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Thu FLASH: Oz cleans up Fossils

Just joined CAN briefing for the afternoon. (informal plenary speeches REALLY unconstructive and boring.) They use 'etherpad.com' as an online work pad, allowing up to 16 people to jot ideas as they occur, in real time.

Walked in and grabbed CAN ECO news www.climatenetwork.org/eco
to find that Australia cleand up at FoD yesterday. 1st for heavying Tuvalu and other pacific islands to accept 2'c rise and 450ppm, "or else"; and joint 2nd/3rd with Canada and Japan for failing to even keep up with the US's meagre crumbs from the table.

ECO also gave Rudd a rap for supporting the two tracks (Kyoto AND the proposed "Copenhagen Accord"), but noted our pathetic 5% target, and lack of tangible finance numbers.
As the US has joined UK and France in supporting the US$100BN p.a. by 2020 idea.

CAN has a couple of folks in Bella, who said that the delay this morning was due to a Friends of the Chair mtg going on. FoD nominations delayed as day is yet young (1500)
Fossil of the Year was easily won by Canada.

The speeches.
General feeling - echoed in The Guardian - was that Obama's keynote was pretty ordinary, very US-oriented, and didn't push the bounds of already-known US thoughts. US will put in 10BN of the 100BN p.a.

Lula said that Brazil is roughly self-sufficient, and willing to make some sacrifices to achieve more ("Brazil IS committed to helping developing countries").

China was mostly usual noise - nothing really new - supporting transparency (a;ong with the US).

Lesotho (LDC) expressed severe disappointment with current progress, and pushed for consultations to continue after COP. No one spoke for AOSIS or G77.

Friday, December 18, 2009

11:57am: The Plenary finally starts...

but we wonder what that actually means. We have just heard that Obama has scrapped his day's schedule and is meeting behind closed doors - aided and abetted by Japan - to move things "forward".

Finally, Danish Prime Minister Rasmussen welcomed delegates to the informal plenary. Unfortunately with so many thousand people apparently watching, the web feed is very intermittent, so we only get every third word or so - but at least we can say we were 'ere 8<)).
He appeared to be followed by Ban Ki Moon, Chinese Premier Wen, Lula da Silva (Brazil), and then Obama took the stage. We turned off the video and hoped for the best. Then a techo came and rebooted the server...

Interestingly President of Iran, Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was at the same time delivering a Press Conference on the other channel, which made for a surrealistic experience...

Meanwhile, we have wifi up, and here is a snap of my new Canuck mate, waiting for the action to start...


I have been reading some of the Australian press - pretty poor coverage, if I may be so bold. COP is NOT a catastrophe, there is real progress, and there is a desperate desire on the part of all the Heads of State to go home with something worthwhile. Amazingly, the chance of an Australian double dissolution doesn't seem to be affecting things here.

Fri: plenary broadcast

sorry, no photos - too hard to insert on the Nokia!

Well, it's now 1107am, and the broadcast shows a melee of back slapping and great goodwill, but of course, nothing's happening. All the delegates are milling about. It allows time for reflection...

I awoke this morning to the BBCWorld report featuring a report from a reporter in Australia: inter alia, "Australians are a nation of deniers and skeptics, more interested in protecting the 'quarry of the world' than doing anything really substantive to address climate change. From its measly 5% taget and failed ETS, Australia slumbers on, while its Prime Minister acts as a Friend of the Chair in COP..." and so on.

So, take THAT, friends and relatives, from the pommies!

Worse than a Fossil, this is a pretty bad blow to our reputation, and I'm afraid it is cutting a bit close to the bone.

Hmm, i'll try to report more positively in the next blog, if the proceedings actually get underway.

2nd Thu: movie premier

Badly typed on my Nokia...
Last night we went to the Geological Museum and saw a film premiere. "Hope in a Changing Climate". Good effort, took 15 years to make about the successful restoration of the Loess Plateau in NW China. The producer was there, as well as the World Bank, and a bunch of delegates from Rwanda, Ethiopia and Greece which have adopted the same approach.
Food and drink was good, movie excellent - and they gave out PAL copies later on, so it was all good.

FINAL Friday: Obama to the rescue?

From my Nokia... (typo alert!)
There are big expectations that today "Hope nhagen" will deliver. Read ENB for the best update, on the ISD site. We are milling around CPH in the best snow to fall on Europe in four years (!). Without our wifi, it's extremely expensive - not to mention difficult - to keep up with what's going on. Our train was held up for 20 minutes underground, while Obama's entourage go organised...
Canada has apparently won the Fossil of the Year - bearing out the US for honours.
Today I am wandering around with a Canadian CER advisory lawyer, looking for a plenary web feed so we can watch the procedings.
It got too hard so we fell for coffee and danish (what else!), and my friend met a Toronto-based lawyer who he knew, while we stood outside the Deloitte auditorium, waiting for the feed to start.
(Dave has gone home, although his plane was Obama'd for an hour at the airport this morning.)

2nd Thu - ICLEI presentation on Copenhagen


We finally ended up taking refuge in a beautiful building down by the river, at the Kopenhaven Kommune - where ICLEI staged a presentation on Copenhagen's plans to be Carbon Neutral by 2025. Very impressive, and a great vision. Details may be at (I think) www.kk.dk/climate - or not(!)

Lotus Eco Elise

At the Crowne Plaza, where quick as a flash, nothing happened this morning, there was a small ray of sunshine - the Lotus Eco Elise. Lotus created it a earlier this year, to get into the spirit of COP. It has natural fibres for seat material, light weight wheels, solar panels on the roof, and a heap of recycled cardboard replacing plastics etc inside. Saving 32 kg, it still looks racy:

The public use computer centre

Just BTW, for those travelling to COP without computers, there are about 500 available in the following snap:

Anyone can sit down and surf the web, do their gmail, write and print reports etc. Pretty good setup - we used it to get some pix from the NREL site for a small column that Dave and I wrote for the Outreach newsletter (that may not get published due to the lack of audience now in Bella!)

2nd Thursday: on the loose

Today, apart from it being 5 below zero (and Wendy saying it was 41 in Merimbula!) and a biting wind, with 100 mm snow, we are are out in the cold. We went to the Crowne Plaza at 9am for a skype-based BINGO briefing (there are a couple of BINGO heavies actually inside Bella!). Here is a photo taken from the Hard Rock Cafe, at noon - note the sunshine!:


The best way to ascertain the current state of despair is to take two Bex powders, have a lie down, and then visit the IISD site for the daily ENB newsletter. You can also watch the presidents and prime ministers expressing their good will - except for Bolivia - on the live stream from the UNFCCC website.

You may have seen on the news that there was a "riot" at Bella yesterday. Now we were safely inside - being diplomatic - and it is rumoured that some folks went outside to protest - leaving their coats and jackets inside... Well, surprise!!! They couldn't get back in, and they got a bit cross. Now, if it's snowing, why would you go outside, in a high security environment, unless you were looking for trouble? Looking at the Bella Metro stop, barracaded and full of police and security guards, it's hard to see how more than three people, two flags and a dog could have assembled to create much of a riot.

There was also much mileage in the Australian press about a demonstration disrupting Penny Wong's address to the COP. My belief is that it was a pure co-incidence that Penny was speaking when the die-in occurred. They had been waiting for an opportunity, and that was when it happened. No specific intent to harm or communicate about Australia's (lamentable) position - the Americans are well and truly creating enough problems for the rest of us to be able to hide our embarrassment quietly. (The yanks won their third Fossil in a row last night...)

Thursday, December 17, 2009

2nd Wed: SEIA/EPIA Side Event


From 1630-1800 hrs, we were at the Solar Energy Industries Association and European PV Industry Association side event. A reasonable crowd, with presentations by Dr Murray Cameron and Adel El Gammal (EPIA), Simon Rolland for the Alliance for Rural Electrification, and Rhone Resch of SEIA.

The following notes were taken in real time, and may be a bit dodgy...

Dr Cameron: a good overview of the benefits of solar energy: decentralised energy supply, energy security, air quality improvement, future high tech industry, net positive return to Society, Stopping deforestation, rural electrification and fast deployment (e.g 10MWp of solar PV in 8 weeks.)
- Compare motor vehicle ICE efficiency with PV at 15-18%.
- EU growth 24% up to 2003, now 39%, from EPIA analysis in Global Market Outlook for PV until 2013 - AT Kearney.
- FiT is win win for governments as they don't necessarily have to pay for it - the utility is expected to work it through, with its consumers.
- Declining cost per watt, currently dropping at about 14% p.a., expected to drop to about -5% in 2020.
- Huge end user market in Europe alone, estimated at 2.92 TWh (final energy consumption) which could be cost effective enough to power 76% of total European demand - more realistically, maybe 21% (up to ~20%) - still a challenging goal.
- "PV is an effective instrument for global climate change mitigation", providing appropriate support mechanisms are available.
- Boosting PV is an investment - not a cost - yielding huge macro-economic benefits. - More aggressive deployment gives a more profitable investment.
- Between the US (15% in 2020, using PV and CSP) and the EU at 12%, we could create 6 million jobs - more than nuclear and coal together.

We all need to take action, as individuals, towns, cities, companies and societies.
Scalable solar technologies are available, NOW.

COP policy imperatives require:
binding CO2 emission reductions, including solar, technology transfer and appropriate funding mechanisms.

Simon Rolland
: The role and potential of PV in developing countries.
The Alliance unites private sector actors in order to speak with one voice, and
generates technical and financial solutions.
- Cumulative costs of diesel gensets vs PV/Diesel hybrid installations is compelling, especially over 8-9 years and longer.
- push for rural electrification is a political challenge, Sustainable and cost-effective solutions are required.
- the financing problem: can be addressed by subsidies, fee for service, output-based aid etc.
- Local challenges MUST be addressed - local ownership and responsibility, support, service etc.
- All stakeholders must work together - not a technology problem.

Adel El Gammal:
PV in the sunbelt countries
- <+/- 35' latitude = 63 countries with 75% of world population. 1.6 billion have no electricity...
- Most have great solar access: clean and competitive, quick to deploy, decarbonised, reliable, scalable.
- possibly 60% drop in costs by 2020 (6-9 eurocents/kWh) - NREL/AT Kearney "EPIA set for 2020".
- 95% of the PV potential (250-560 GWhp) is concentrated in 20 countries.

- PV is mature, evolving and gaining efficiency, but IT WORKS, and doesn't need to be trialled.
- equally suitable for developed and developing countries
- assisting cities with distributed generation, smart grid support and quick rollout
- requires binding, ambitious targets
finance mechanisms, and technology transfer.

Rhone Resch:
Seizing the solar solutions: combating climate change through accelerated deployment - DOWNLOADABLE go to http://www.solarcop15.org/

In US, SEIA has 1000 member companies, 60,000 employees, 14 state and regional chapters, and is represented in dozens of countries including APVA.

Covers both solar hot water, PV and concentrating solar power (CSP)

India: 1-1.5 GW of solar by 2012, 20 GW by 2020. using subsidies, soft loans, low import tariffs
China: 20 GWp of cumulative capacity by 2020, 1.6 million jobs, Renewable energy law and FiT, BiPV and solar thermal applications supported.
US: by 2020 generation of 15% of electricity: 12% of PV and CSP, 3% avoided electricity. (Contrary to US naysayers). 880,000 jobs.

- Exponential growth should continue, even improve.
- Need policies now - leadership evident at home (!)
- Solar Bill of Rights www.solarbillofrights.org
1. everyone has a right to put solar on their homes or business (Al Gore fought and won.)
2. everyone has the right to connect to the grid with uniform national standards (like the web).
3. everyone has the right to net meter and compensated at, at least the full retail rate.
4. The solar industry has a right to fair, competitive environment (cf other energy industries - level playing fields).
5. Solar industry has the right to equal access to public lands (like oil industry).
6. Solar industry has a right to sell its power across a new, 21st century transmission grid.
7. everyone has the right to purchase solar electricity from their utility.
8. everyone has the right to the highest ethical standards from the solar industry.

- 85,000 coal jobs constant in US at present, compared with 65,000 solar employees right now.
- projected cross-over against electricity by 2017, without carbon pricing.
- check out web site!

We can use solar now!

Questions:
- Desertec
- Bergen NORWAY, building all Passiv Haus buildings with 50% solar-based heating - impressive, given high latitude. NB: In US (Calif) houses with PV sell faster, for a premium.
- Need to build solar infrastructure in from new, even if not using solar initially - architects and builders, including BiPV.
- Reliability and sustainability in for example, Nigeria?

2nd Wed: ICLEI Local Govt Climate Roadmap

This afternoon we attended an ICLEI side event, featuring Sir Nicholas Stern (sorry, no photo - I wasn't organised, but he was good!), and the Mayors of Melbourne, Johannesburg, Seattle, Delhi, Mexico (super)City and the ex-Mayor of Bonn (now chair of world council of mayors, since Cop11 (Kyoto)). Note that COP16 with be in Mexico City, maybe midyear. Some of the presentations included:

The Melbourne Mayor spoke of the week leading up to Black Saturday. He said that whether it was caused by climate change or not, it was a sneak peek at the coming world - and it's not good. He said that after a week of >40'c days, Melbourne was near breakpoint: the grid was straining, many buildings and systems were strained, people were tired and prone to making mistakes - an all round bad scene.

Seattle. He assumed that in 2000, the federal government was working on what we now know as climate change. He was mistaken, and it became clear in 2005 that with a cancelled snow season, there was no water, and therefore no (hydro) electricity, and he needed to do something. Seattle is on track to achieving a Kyoto-like target, and he challenged across the US - now 1016 other mayors have signed on.

World Council. Local government is key to addressing climate change. With more than 50% of humans living in cities, we must make cities work sustainably. She made a plea for the local government role to remain in the (Kyoto-ish) text.

There were other statements, and the Melbourne Mayor participated in a constructive and spirited way, which was good to witness.

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

2nd Wed: Senator Kerry on US Foreign Relations


We got seats to listen to Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the US Foreign Relations Committee. Yvo de Boaer was there, also the Chair of the IPCC.

Very inspiring, very straight forward. He's a great speaker - makes me feel like he's talking just to me, although maybe it's because I am directly in line with the transparent queue reader 8<)). He re-iterated that one can't be half pregnant - it's a binary situation. Either we HAVE climate change, or we don't - you can't sit on the fence. He challenged the non-believers to cite a single example of man-made climate change NOT happening, and wished them "good luck!".

Long a reliable and passionate supporter of the effort, Kerry was at Rio in 92, and Bali in '07, and most COPs in between. He pushed for a price on carbon, reducing emissions, send low emission signals, unleash the free market to address the problem. He says that the US is moving in the right direction - US$80BN, raise US vehicle fuel economy, $350Bn for Stephen Chu's programme, 33 States "on board", >1,000 Mayors are achieving Kyoto targets, WITHOUT Federal assistance. Even a national mandatory emissions target, as well as the EPA regulation threat.

Getting the legislation through the Senate is still a challenge, but it WILL happen. Carbon MUST be priced. International, legally binding solutions are the only way forward. Accepting that "we" made the GHG problem, and we need to get on with helping to clean up and develop without creating more pollution. Finance is not negotiable. The US is 5% of the world's population, and 20% of total energy used. A global solution must include ALL countries, including China, Brazil, India - all of which have committed to improved energy intensities, outside Kyoto implications. Let's support them, and encourage ALL to make progress.

We need to build on the Bali Action Plan, including REDD, and international finance, with technology transfer. Fast starts are OK, but we need long term finance for the developing world.

He pushed for a mid 2010 continuation of the Copenhagen political solution, to create a binding agreement. Although emotions ebb and flow, we can't walk away from today's - and tomorrow's - progress. He closed by saying that after 700 days of planning, scheming, discussing (since Bali) - we as a race of people MUST succeed this Friday - and he received a standing ovation. Truly inspiring.

2nd Wed - we wait....

Better organisation to get in this morning, except they closed the metro stop and we walked the km or so up the road, under the metro and joined "the Q". So after starting an hour earlier, despite better channeling, and.... only 45 minutes - so not much change! However, as the snow stopped and it's now just damp and grey, it was quite refreshing. Today, they finally stopped registering people - they got to 45,000 - and remember that the limit was only 15k....

We got ourselves in, and attended the daily BINGO debrief, and then I went and joined the DHL line to send back some stuff. An hour later...

Anyway, the news is not good - but NOT so bad, either. There is rather too much stuff been left for the heavies to sort out, but they're giving it a go. The US got cained in last night's Fossils, for turning the three page Bunker and Aviation Fuel draft plot into a 7 page fully bracketed disaster. (The reason Bunkers is important is that it offers a way to serious financing of the LDC support effort, but the rumour is that the US delegation has been told that giving in on Bunkers will assure certain defeat of the US climate change legislation in Congress - get the picture?)

We have spoken with people from all sorts of places - Congo, Samoa, Russia, etc. There is so much good will at our level - it's very frustrating that we wait and wait for the elephants to mate....

2nd Tue: North American State/Provence Leadership


We obtained tickets to a terrific presentation on behalf of The Climate Registry and Georgetown Climate Center, featuring three Premiers and two Governors - but no Governator - a late cancellation (maybe he couldn't get registered?).
They spoke extremely convincingly about how they have formed a number of alliances, embracing the Canadian/US border, which represent 23 States and 4 Provences - totalling more than 50% of their combined populations. They have successfully created structures to fill the vacuum of insufficient Federal leadership, which are creating green jobs (47,000 in Washington State), their own Cap and Trade schemes, and The Climate Registry which enables a common approach to measuring, reporting and verification (MRV). "The economy IS the environment."

BC has almost 100% renewable energy, and Washington leads in both solar and wind.

Quebec is positioned to leverage the new, opening Northern maritime route, which will change the political realities of life in the (north american) arctic. It has -20% targets by 2020, transit and green tech policies, and used its experience with SO2 pollution in the 1970s (which lead to the Montreal Protocol) to tackle GHG challenges. It has 95% hydro, is investigating smart grid, and is FiT-friendly.

Wisconsin uses Manitoba's hydro to enable it to achieve Renewable Portfolio Standards, and cites protection of the Great Lakes as a major driver for its approach. Being predominately coal-dependent, it faces a major problem to transition its population to the modern world. FiT may be a good idea to break the coal-based ignorance. Many famous green achievers emanate from this State, and they are particularly fond of their establishment of a Cap and Trade Scheme. They have many important, enlightened farmers and manufacturers (eg Harley Davidson) which look for leadership to drive increasing efficiency and green technology adoption. (It's a matter of looking at former "waste" streams as opportunities for bio-processing and energy generation.) They spoke of their use of Federal funds to assist their constituencies to become more energy efficient, innovative and lead.

Manitoba emphasised that the States and Provinces have shown their Federal governments learn from their experience. They use HVDC transmission to distribute hydro electricity both sideways and south, over the border. They have embraced a -6% (Kyoto-style 1990) target which will be achieved by 2012, and anticipate going further. They are also very active in Energy Efficiency, and look to their 1.2m population being North American leaders in national energy efficiency - avoiding new generation. They have 100 MW of wind, and more to come, subject to (increasingly difficult) financing, which uses the Utility to finance quick paybacks on furnace update/replacement programme. They have a 2% ethanol mandate, and hope to expand that, as well as methane recovery programmes. All new housing and renovations are LEED standard. Big on bus manufacturing, they are encouraging their manufacturers to lead in hybrid and fuel cell buses. Boreal forests are being re-established and extended - as well as UNESCO-protected - to support eco-tourism. They have adopted protection of the Polar Bear as a state mascot, again with tourist potential. Manitoba does NOT favour FiT (although BC does)

A really good question was asked right at the end: Tar Sands.... Cause of so many Fossil awards, the Federation works because each party can follow it's own destiny. The hope was expressed that by "the others" showing enlightened leadership, maybe Alberta will start to look at exploring alternative or symbiotic paths.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

2nd Tues: CNN/YouTube Debate


well, here's a surprise, apart from it SNOWING (beautiful!) and amongst all the chaos, Dave and I got some tickets for a 2 hour CNN YouTube debate featuring (excuse spelling - it's dark!) Beccie Anderson (compare), Bjorn Lomberg, Darryl Hannah, Tom Freidman, Yvo de Boer and Kofi Annan, by video. Lots of fun and games. It will be broadcast on Wed, Thu and the w/e, as well as live streamed - although probably isn't all that relevant to you, in Oz.) Sorry, couldn't take a worthwhile snap - lighting not suitable!)
The questions were posed via YouTube (thousands) and ranged far and wide. They ranged from supportive to denialist, as well as skeptic and anti-alarmist. I won't try to report it's progress - maybe you can watch the video.

Bjorn of course is not a denialist, but he doesn't believe that the UNFCCC process is the way forward - like James Hansen.

2nd Tuesday: Parallel World

While the COP meanders onwards, much of the work which should have been resolved is being escalated up "to the Ministers" (who were no doubt expecting to arrive on Thursday, be presented with a well-slogged out, fait accompli, sign a few docs in front of the cameras and then say "problem solved".) Meanwhile, as we can't get into most of those (negotiating-type) sessions, we're doing our best to attend some side events. This morning, Aldo (ISES Italy), Dave (ISES US) and I have separately attended the IEA - Renewable Energy Technology Development seminar, the Solar Energy Industries Association "Bill of Rights" presentation, and the Sahara Forest Project. All food for thought...

We are unable to leave the Bella Centre as we wouldn't be able to return, and this evening we have an IRENA presentation to attend (INSIDE).... They are talking about allowing most of us to spend Thursday and Friday in town to watch the COP proceedings, including all the Ministers' presentations (like Penny Wong). Only problem: it would be OUTSIDE - and it's going to snow 8<)) We'll see.

BTW, you're probably wondering about Fossil of the Day. It's still being presented, and you can follow it on www.fossil-of-the-day.org Yesterday, the US won its first Fossil, for two reasons: steadfastly refusing to name an amount it will pitch in to the LDC development funds, and its effective 4% emission target re 1990 (everyone else is talking 20-30-40% re 1990, but the US and a couple of others have set their reference years as e.g. 2005, which of course skews the books). Second was the EU for failing to address "hot air" and forest management; and 3rd was our old favourite - Canada (this time with Saudi Arabia) for coming last and second last in the Climate Change Performance Index released by Greenwatch and Climate Action Network. This evaluates 57 industrial and developing countries which release 90% of the world's current greenhouse gas emissions. Saudi came a clear last, as it has yet to publish a climate policy....

What does a tonne of CO2 look like?


Well, good question. Here's a photo of a grounded balloon outside Bella. A bit hard to judge scale, but it's rather like a hot air balloon.
Another way of thinking about it is a "standard(?) three bedroom house" - probably only in Oz - maybe in 1955; or as two double decker London buses, side by side. (Certainly different from the multiple black balloon approach of Aussie TV adverts...)

Every now and then...


things go wrong! One of my journalist mates pulled on his newly-acquired mittens from the Pew Centre this morning, to find that one label was sewn on upside down. (Try saying "our hands", backwards, and upside down....) Now that could have worked (been intentional) - one hand for the northern hemisphere, one for the south, but he was a bit miffed when his colleague pulled out his pair which of course were both oriented the same way! It appears that Chines mitten quality control still has some way to go.

Stephen Chu - Alliance for Saving Energy


Yesterday, we attended a side event and reception in town, by the rather interestingly-named Alliance for Saving Energy. Some interesting presentations, mainly focussed on the US, but also concerning energy efficiency in China etc, leveraging some of the "Kyoto" mechanisms. The reception was very pleasant, and featured Dr Stephen Chu, the US Secretary for the Environment. (He won the 1997 Nobel Prize for Physics, and is a known practitioner of common sense.) He was very inspiring - genuine, realistic, visionary and so on. He had good things to say about the efforts the US has planned to dramatically improved US energy efficiency.

2nd Tuesday - getting in is a major achievement!


We started 10 minutes earlier so we could get a different train from Malmo, across the bridge. Went well until we arrived at the metro station outside Bella at 8am, and then complete chaos. Thousands of people in at least three groups: unregistered and keen (having secondary card but no registration), registered and carded (us), and the Party members (the actual negotiators). This last group got a rough deal - they were in with the ordinary registered folks (us), and had to Q to get in as well - no preferential treatment here! Took us 50 minutes to get in - lucky it was warm (0'c), dry and everyone was in a good humour.
Note in the photo, there are small red lights on the lamp posts. These indicate the estimated height of sea level in 2100, with "Business as Usual" (ie no mitigation as a result of us failing to get our act together...)

As there are only 30% of the "normal" NGO observers inside, it's pretty civilised, and we're attending a BINGO (Business and Industry NGO) review of yesterday, and briefing. There is a lot of flak about the entrance process - apparently much worse than any past COP, and pre-registering 45,000 NGO folks (solid rumour) when only 15k can be accommodated, could be part of the problem.

ENB is additionally producing a daily "Business Day Bulletin" http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop15/BD/ which may be interesting to those of you with more industry-focussed interests.

2nd Mon: the week coming....

We've just been informed that even though we have our "Secondary Cards" (we're sharing between the ISES Directors here, that Tue and Wed they will admit a maximum of 7,000 NGO observers, 1,000 on Thu and *90* on Friday.
So I guess that means we had better get our money's worth in the next couple of days. Here's a snap out at the Greenpeace Climate Rescue station - a large (HEATED!) geodesic dome, with free coffee. Sorry - South Australia - there's a rather too large a person standing in front of you! (Only problem is braving the smokers standing in the gloom, next to the ice sculptures.)
Dave and I had a welcome, quiet contemplation...

2nd Mon: Climate TV


Dave Renne has given an excellent 10 minute interview to climate TV. Emphasising our links to REN Alliance, IRENA, and our members, as well as the bright future for solar deployment - clean energy, jobs, current technology works, plenty of future development to come - all good!

Monday, December 14, 2009

2nd Monday: Back in action!

Folks, a couple of people have written to me asking why no post since last Thursday.

Well, I got to a point on Thursday when two things happened: the talks were adjourned almost indefinitely (which was a bit distressing - and I didn't want to write in a bad frame of mind) and I got tired. I have a couple of catch-up posts in preparation, and as I was in London on the w/e (having a great time with our son and daughter in law), I didn't work there. I did scour the pommie papers however, and there's generally objective and positive reporting. Most papers had two+ pages, and an editorial. The EU stumping up some serious money for the next three years helped.

There are currently - at 1340 Monday, 10k people OUTSIDE the Bella Centre, and it's taking up to 5 hours to register new attendees... It's also about 2 degrees, after being -3 or so overnight (which must make standing in a queue less fun).
The Bella wifi was down yesterday, and today is a bit shaky, but it's keeping up with the 20k+ users inside! We have had to get "Secondary Cards" to allow us to enter from Tuesday onwards, as the numbers are so huge that the place is bulging. The ISES team will share a couple of cards...

Been helping incoming ISES President Dave Renne prepare for a TV interview this morning, and a press conference tomorrow, so no time to finish my part posts. But I'll get back to it later. Sorry for the inconvenience, but I can only fit so much in.

Thursday, December 10, 2009

D4 - YuFeGe (Youth & Future Generations) Day

I have tried to copy from the ECO newsletter the "reality" graph - hope you can read it! (If not let me know and I'll provide a description of its contents.)


Lots of younger folks are getting around in brilliant orange T shirts today. They are emblazoned with "How old will you be in 2050?" - which is a little sobering to me - and maybe to you, dear follower... However, I'm not planning on going anywhere soon, so we need to keep up the pace while we can.

Now about the yesterday's "trainsmash".
Tuvalu was not in fact proposing to dump Kyoto (KP) but to propose an additional Copenhagen Protocol, for a fair, ambitious and binding outcome, closely following the Bali Action Plan (BAP), reached through an open and transparent process, such as a Contact Group. These are smaller meetings, run in parallel. I went to one this morning to experience it, but it was about the non-contentious Joint Implementation, and after a couple of brief, positive reports, was adjourned early (that's unusual!) There's a further one later, about CDM, which may be more contentious, and therefore interesting (the old CCS problem). There is much "Civil Society" support for Tuvalu's proposition (which features a 1.5'c and 350 ppm limit, which is certainly "ambitious", but maybe that's no bad thing).
It's interesting that China, India and the oil states are so vocally against it, as they believe it would divert from the agreed KP direction and actions, through the Longterm Cooperative Action programme. The Umbrella Group, EU and the like are mostly silent at the moment. We shall see...

BTW I found out why they can't just discuss it and then the Chair "Put the motion". The COP has never formally agreed on meeting procedures, and so there is no means of voting - actions are - EVENTUALLY! - achieved (or not) through "consensus". This partly explains why every Party feels a need to voice its opinion, and why one "hold out" Party can delay any progress, almost indefinitely. (This seems to me, personally, to explain much of the general public's frustration that "nothing ever seems to happen", despite much talk, plenty of hot air, promises, greenwash and closed door discussions.

I'm now back in the COP meeting (CMP), where there is much noise going on about whether there is an effort to kill KP (which I don't believe has been vaguely suggested) - or to amend it, as per the rules, as proposed by separate proposals submitted by Tuvalu, Australia, Costa Rica, Japan and the US.

I trust this is somewhat interesting to you, and I'll report some more later.

FoD Wednesday - and a new "Ray of the Day" award


We had a surprise at last night's FoD. After Canada and Croatia won, and Russia came second for "Not actually putting 25% cuts on the KP table, just publicising its thoughts", there was a new award: the "Ray of the Day" won by Tuvalu, to much public applause. This relates to its brave move in the COP meeting, of which I'll try to provide some clarification in my next post, now that I have read ENB and a couple of other reports on it (I wasn't entirely wrong, but not right either!)

Comment from Dr Bill, on Canada

Bill has been unable to post his comments re Canada's Fossil award on Monday (they won another one last night - next post!)

Here is his comment:
"The Canadians are undoubtedly becoming the pariahs of the planet with the recent news that a piece of land in Alberta [the size of the UK] is going to become one open cut shale oil mine. This the second largest reserve of oil and the Canadians are abandoning their commitment to Kyoto. Shale oil is literally the scrape of the barrel and it comes at a high price in consumed energy, environmental degradation and pollution."

If you'd like to correspond directly with him, email me and I'll set it up for you.

D3/2 - BIG numbers and the meeting of the COP cont.

wow! this is BIG! I have copied part of an email from an IRENA colleague, concerning the numbers of attendees:

"On Tuesday I had to queue for only 1 hour for admission. I am not sure how we all will be able to get in next week as they told us Tuesday morning on the BINGO (Business/Industry NGO) meeting that 35.000 delegates are registered for the meeting; 10.000 delegates, 5000 journalists and 21.000 NGO (only 15.000 NGO [folks, i.e. us] are allowed to come indoors because of security reason). It is best to be early at place on Monday to be sure that we get in."

So, an early start I guess (It took me about 20 minutes to get in at 0920 this morning.)

The COP meeting has proceeded very slowly through the day. There is a major problem: as I understand it (and I may have it WRONG!), Tuvalu and lots of the small guys have requested that a new protocol should be discussed in a new "CONTACT" (i.e. closed) session, so that the US can become formally involved; while China, the Umbrella Group, and lots of the big guys want to continue with the Kyoto Protocol in an open session, with the US only "on side". Serious and heated comments from both sides (except the Yanks, of course, who aren't here as they haven't ratified the KP), culminating in Connie suspending that item so that she could adjourn the meeting (several hours late) until 1500. When she reconvened and got on with reports on CDM etc (the smouldering problem of CCS in CDM again reared up) and so it was all very frustrating. (HMM, re-reading - that's a complex couple of sentences, but it's been a trying day!)

There was a major demonstration outside the hall at 1500, supporting the Tuvalu initiative. We shall see how it works out (and I might find I have it completely wrong, when I read ENB report tomorrow!) Either way, it doesn't bode all that well - there are going to be problems one way or tuther.

Met Christine Milne during the day - she was a little less than her normal bubbly self, but we soon put an end to that, and she continued on in her resolute (and commendable) style. Hope she hangs in there - it's early days, after all.

Philippa Rowland from CEFE has arrived and we had a quick bite at lunchtime, recapping progress with the Bega Solar Farm initiative, and the current "Lifesaving Swim for Solar" programme to solarise the Queanbeyan and some ACT pools.

Attended a side event at lunchtime about the Indigenous Peoples' interests needing to be recognised if we are to be truly sustainable. At the moment, mentions of the UN Charter of the Rights of IPs are amazingly rare in the UNFCCC documentation...

Tonight a side event on Smart Grids; and another on "Sustainable Living vs Sustainable Building", by the RTCC (UK). Should be interesting on both counts. Let's see - after a heavy day, some good info will be welcome.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

D3 - mixed messages



Tried a new way to the conference today - caught a different bus through the burbs to the Malmo South station. Saves about 20 mins, but replaces the pleasant walk through Malmo Centrum with a warehouse landscape - IKEA, BAUHAUS, lots of BIG car dealers...

At least the fog has nearly lifted - we could see the horizon while on the bridge across the Kategaat (sp?). Encouraging that the horizon consists of a distant grey line, punctuated by dozens of wind turbines - all good!

To business. Yesterday I mentioned that you can get meaningful, concise summaries of the proceedings from a number of sources. The best is: ENB http://www.iisd.ca/climate/cop15 and their side event summaries - add /enbots/ to the above link.

GetUp! has a beaut video report coming mostly daily. Use a little of your monthly bandwidth allowance and tune in to
http://coptv.getup.org.au/2009/12/09/coptv-episode-1-welcome-to-cop15/

Climate Action Network - of which AuSES is a member - does ECO: http://www.climatenetwork.org/eco

and a group of folks staying at my hotel in the wilds of Malmo do Outreach: try media.stakeholderforum.org

Now, I'm writing this while in the opening plenary of Wednesday morning. whereas the previous photos were in the narrow "Karen Blixen" room, I'm now in the
"other" plenary room, "Tycho Brae" - a wide one (see snap). This is where the actual "Conference of the Parties" (COP) meets, and is chaired by the Danish environment minister, Connie Hedegarde (sp). Yvo de Boer is saying that next week there will be 110+ official country delegations at the COP, and some will have more than 100 people in tow, as well as their own PR types (and spooks?). Therefore they are reluctantly looking to whether they will have to close off our open access to many of these sessions. Understandable, but regrettable.
Connie has just announced that COP17 *may* be hosted by South Africa, and there is a desire that COP18 be in Asia...

Tuvalu has just delivered a brilliant speech - very positive, and well-thought out. A great mix of pathos and genuine goodwill. Much applause 8<))

The story so far: CONFUSION! (at least for me! - although that adds to my adventure!).
There was much flak about a leaked Danish Govt briefing paper that revealed that a deal would be done "almost at any cost". Of course this eliminated many of the troublesome Parties, and it's leaking is a bad sign for "Transparency". Hopefully that little adventure is now in a dead end, and we can get on with a 192 country negotiation...

My summary to Muriel included the following (although I've amended it a bit):
"There is obviously serious interest in the Tech Transfer challenge/problem - but the real elephant is who's going to pay? There is a major source of unease about the demands of the LDCs (backed by China+G77, and AOSIS as well as the African Group, and others) about Annex 1 countries (that's "us" - "the west" or "the north")
(a) reducing its emissions realistically, legally-bound and tangible (MRV) and
(b) stumping up with the 8-10 Bn (Euros or Dollars depending who's talking) that everyone agrees is required PER YEAR, for Mitigation, from next year to 2012, before we ramp up to the 100-150 p.a. that everyone agrees is needed by 2020.

Climategate seems to have been relegated (rightly) to a sideshow, and there is no question that Renewable Energy is accepted as the answer - perhaps with a little nuclear and a lot of gas...

Hardly telling you anything new, I'm sure.

No sight of the coal lobby though - I guess Australia and Brazil are [considered to be] a long way away."
[and of course, Australia goes about it's own business, regardless, judging by what I can see of the ABC.net.au and Oz media websites.]

That's probably enough for now. More later.

FoD Day 2 - Australia joint second!


I must be becoming psychic - I was at a session this afternoon when Australia, leading the Umbrella Group, argued strongly for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) to be added to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Now I'm no expert but it occured to me that this is definite Fossil Award material.

I personally tend to agree with the Least Developed Countries (LDC), Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and a few others in G77+China Groups. That is a DUMB idea, especially when Australia then adds further mud to its position by citing a research paper which "proves that CCS works". (Unfortunately the paper missed the COP publish date, so most of the Parties hadn't seen it, and they aren't that stupid.) This became a major stumbling block and completely derailed the proceedings for hours - the rather frustrated Chair deferred to "informal meetings" for sorting out the disagreement. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait (which of course support CCS) argued strongly for it be dealt with formally, but to no avail....

So at this evening's awards, TahDah!!!! - the Umbrella Group received the FoD 2nd Place. It was nearly overshadowed by Ukraine winning both 1st and 3rd Places - which you have to agree - is a pretty notable achievement!
(In the photo, Australia is on the left, holding the cup, filled with coal, and little dinosaurs...)

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

D2 - deep breath - the pace quickens


Made an earlier start to fit more in. Met at the metro station out front of the Bella Center by the Aussie "awareness-raising contingent". Good to see that others feel that our 5% ain't enough, and we need the world to know it!

Attended the opening plenary of the "Subsidiary Body for Implementation" which is supposed to be closer to actual delivery of the climate mitigation and adaptation programmes. Pretty dry - almost a rerun of yesterday's LCA launch, but after a couple hours it got into it's stride. SBI is intended to address Capacity Building, National Communications and Technology Transfer, especially for long term adaptation.

There is a parallel SBSTA (Scientific and Technical Advice) which focuses more on reduced forest emissions and regeneration, the Nairobi Programme and various methodology issues. Can't be in two places at once, so will have to read how it progresses. Both are expecting top table their reports towards the end of next week, and to set out how they expect to continue for the remainder of the Kyoto period, and beyond.

Good coverage this morning in the Fin Times and on BBC World. FT concentrated on the EU's threat to pull its 30% target if everyone else doesn't get serious; and the US EPA now being able to effectively provide a medium for the government to force change in the US through "regulation", as "the carrot approach" (legislation) has bogged down in Congress. Of course the home of the free can bog down regulatory approaches through the courts, so they're inching forward, rather than running, but Obama appears to be trying to explore all avenues.

Opening of AWP-LGA





Monday afternoon I attended the opening plenary of the Ad Hoc Working Group - Longterm Cooperative Action (AWG - LCA). As I'd missed the opening plenary for the conference, this was my intro to the formal meeting process. I took some photos with my phone (which aren't very good, and a short video of Louise Hand, the Australian Climate Ambassador, who is the spokesperson for the "Umbrella Group" - the group of countries of which Australia, US, Russia and a bundle of others are members. Again quality won't win any awards, but it may give you the feel or flavour.
The meeting opened with a welcome by the Chair, and the laying of the ground rules. You'll notice in one photo, a digital clock timer which runs while each party is speaking, to limit their contributions and perhaps give everyone a say. 5 minutes for each Group, 3 mins for individual country, and 2 mins for ad hoc comments, and from official organisations, such as ICAO/IMO. Most kept to the times, but a few had more to say...
I won't try to cover the content - you can better do that through the many dedicated reporters available elsewhere. Suffice to say it was a BIG hall (several thousand, with four enlarging screens for the plebs like me, at the back), and it started 20 minutes late and finished late (hence I missed the start of the Fossil presentation). Overall, it set a formal (positive) start, perhaps covering the frantic discussions taking place behind the scenes.


In the early evening I attended a presentation by a bundle of the developing countries including Albania, Boliviar, Congo, Georgia and Niger, each summarising the findings of their "SNC" (2nd reporting periods). Most were positive, supporting what may be termed the global warming agenda to various extents, and earnestly requesting further significant support from the Annex 1 ("developed") countries to assist with mitigation and adaptation, as well as more immediately to provide funding to enable the third period reporting to commence. Many are putting their faith in follow through and delivery on promised funding, especially for REDD (~=forest management and re-establishment).

Fossil of the Day continued


seems I was only at the end of the "hollywood-style" presentation. Canada did in fact get an award, but in third place. The winner of the day was the Annex 1 countries (i.e. "developed world") for arriving with "a profound deficient of ambition ... to limit warming to less than 2'c"; and second was Sweden, Finland and Austria for backing the EU to "cook the books by not fully accounting for forest management emissions".

CANADA wins Fossil of the Day Award #1

I was about to write about the opening Plenary of the AWG-LCA (Longterm Cooperative Agreement), but I'll have to do that later, as the first Fossil of the Day Award has been just announced: Canada wins on the grounds that a senior Minister says that "Canada will not be swayed by whatever comes out of Copenhagen" (or words to that effect).
(The award is a major poke in the eye, and is to be avoided by national delegations, at almost any coist.)

Can't get wifi in current session, so will send more later.

PS apologies for the typo this morning - Nokia keyboard adds to challenge, and proof reading is skimpy!

Monday, December 7, 2009

D1 - and we're of and running!

Well, today I didn't leave my backpack (including computer and passport), on the Malmo bus (!) Good news, despite a very grey, foggy, damp morning. The quick walk through Malmo Centrum to Central Station is a delight.

Plenty of positive coverage on BBCWorld. Stories about China's approach, and Indian poor (ramifications and effect on getting an agreement). The FT states that "Business leaders call for clear direction" - at least that message is constant. The "UN lady" on the train says that "they are very positive, but they would be, wouldn't they?"...

Finally a picked up a consolidated, official Side Event booklet - the challenge is not to miss anything!

I just got to the venue, through the dozens of eager young folks handing out brochures and flyers ranging from Greenpeace and WWF through to the Schiller Institute ( www.copenhagenscandal.org ) to the Polish Klub Gaja offering Polish oak tree seeds to be planted "for a good climate".

Then I was interviewed on behalf of ISES by Andrew and Kate of the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, from the US-based Center for Public Integrity www.publicintegrity.org . A charming pair, and I believe wiser for our discussion about the affordability of solar (both PV and thermal) and its relevance to technological interventions throughout the developing and developed worlds.

more later...

D-1: it's all happening


I have set up the ISES exhibition stand, and we're set to go for the week.

I've just spent an hour being interviewed by two German Master's students about ISES and how it interacts with REN Alliance and IRENA, as well as more generally with its members, country/sections and so on. They are here for four days and interviewing as many NGOs as possible for their theses.

It's a shame Jim Hansen has decided not to come to COP15 - I can understand his point of view but his presence would help, rather than hinder, or dilute the intent.

The Financial Times and the BBC World TV channel have had good coverage of the preparations for the conference, as well as the protests in London and elsewhere showing support for a positive outcome. Also a couple of hours on the challenges of selling the climate change message in the US, as well as raising awareness about mitigation (avoidance) of climate change damage. I think President Obama has a real challenge in front of him - making our ETS negotiations look trivial.

I've also received my travel card which allows free transport in local Denmark and Sweden public transport, which helps considerably - one appears to go through Kroner very fast!

Looking forward to the action starting tomorrow - only one more sleep.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

2 days to go - and I'm on-site!

from the Nokia...
After flying via Virgin Atlantic to Hong Kong (Excellent!) and Swissair to COP via Zurich (good), I arrived at the Bella Centre and registered. Very well organised and efficient. photo taken, card issued in 10 minutes.

I was pleased to see ABB supporting 30% more efficient cities at botth airports, and COP airport filled with tck,tck,tck and other 'Seal the Deal' banners. Swissair handed out an ICAO brochure to every passenger, showing ICAO's resolution to "cut aviation emissions by 50%, by 2050", using technology, better routing and "a global carbon market".

The G77 + China have been meeting for a week already - I was talking to an Eritrean delegate on the Metro. He was resigned to "less progress" but they were working hard today to hammer out a position.

I decided to attend a Low Carbon Transport Side Event at the Radisson Hotel, for the afternoon. Walked in to find Renault and Bteer Place have taken over the foyer - Zero Emission Renaults everywhere! The 'Fluence' is a Megane based ZEV, with Better Place providing the (leased) battery. to be released in Denmark and Israel next year...

Friday, November 27, 2009

10 days to go

posted from my Nokia E90...
Barak Obama will drop in in the first week - great.
Obama offered 17% cut re 2005 = ~5% re 1990 - not great but a step in the right direction, and a good shot in the arm for the conference.
China now weighing in with a serious offer - good, although with qualifications!
India still has 600m people without electricity - think about that.
Aussie ETS floundering - do we need something this compromised? Only a day to see what we end up with....

Monday, November 23, 2009

14 days to go

Excitement is definitely building - perhaps for some of the wrong reasons. (I feel that unfortunately the press is already trumpeting "defeat", although that is a difficult concept when any progress is welcome, and probable!)
My understanding is that although a formal agreement - or even framework - will not result from this conference, significant efforts are being made to make progress, and we must look to a further 12-18 months before significant legal structures and intrusnments can be anticipated.
For instance, the African Group, representing some of the Least Developed Countries (LDC), are understandably extremely keen on obtaining meaningful emission cuts by the Annex 1 countries, but funding mitigation and adaptation to the tune of ~$160Bn remains a major stumbling block.
We must anticipate that there is a real will to progress, and at this stage, anticipate President Obama's possible presence may provide some additional push - even without a formal US agreement.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

57 days to go

FIRST post:
my intention is to provide a record of my "adventure" to the COP15 Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009.

Through posts to this blog, I intend to provide some background and comment on my experiences as I prepare for and attend the conference, in relation to my associations with the International Solar Energy Society (ISES), Australian Solar Energy Society, and the Australian Photovoltaic Association (APVA).

I trust this may be useful to folks who want to "look over my shoulder" in connection with this conference, which I believe is a very important milestone in our human history. Even if we don't get 100% there - we will progress, as is our way.

More later.
cheers
pete