Lotus Eco Elise

At the Crowne Plaza, where quick as a flash, nothing happened this morning, there was a small ray of sunshine - the Lotus Eco Elise. Lotus created it a earlier this year, to get into the spirit of COP. It has natural fibres for seat material, light weight wheels, solar panels on the roof, and a heap of recycled cardboard replacing plastics etc inside. Saving 32 kg, it still looks racy:

The public use computer centre

Just BTW, for those travelling to COP without computers, there are about 500 available in the following snap:

Anyone can sit down and surf the web, do their gmail, write and print reports etc. Pretty good setup - we used it to get some pix from the NREL site for a small column that Dave and I wrote for the Outreach newsletter (that may not get published due to the lack of audience now in Bella!)

2nd Thursday: on the loose

Today, apart from it being 5 below zero (and Wendy saying it was 41 in Merimbula!) and a biting wind, with 100 mm snow, we are are out in the cold. We went to the Crowne Plaza at 9am for a skype-based BINGO briefing (there are a couple of BINGO heavies actually inside Bella!). Here is a photo taken from the Hard Rock Cafe, at noon - note the sunshine!:


The best way to ascertain the current state of despair is to take two Bex powders, have a lie down, and then visit the IISD site for the daily ENB newsletter. You can also watch the presidents and prime ministers expressing their good will - except for Bolivia - on the live stream from the UNFCCC website.

You may have seen on the news that there was a "riot" at Bella yesterday. Now we were safely inside - being diplomatic - and it is rumoured that some folks went outside to protest - leaving their coats and jackets inside... Well, surprise!!! They couldn't get back in, and they got a bit cross. Now, if it's snowing, why would you go outside, in a high security environment, unless you were looking for trouble? Looking at the Bella Metro stop, barracaded and full of police and security guards, it's hard to see how more than three people, two flags and a dog could have assembled to create much of a riot.

There was also much mileage in the Australian press about a demonstration disrupting Penny Wong's address to the COP. My belief is that it was a pure co-incidence that Penny was speaking when the die-in occurred. They had been waiting for an opportunity, and that was when it happened. No specific intent to harm or communicate about Australia's (lamentable) position - the Americans are well and truly creating enough problems for the rest of us to be able to hide our embarrassment quietly. (The yanks won their third Fossil in a row last night...)

2nd Wed: SEIA/EPIA Side Event

From 1630-1800 hrs, we were at the Solar Energy Industries Association and European PV Industry Association side event. A reasonable crowd, with presentations by Dr Murray Cameron and Adel El Gammal (EPIA), Simon Rolland for the Alliance for Rural Electrification, and Rhone Resch of SEIA.

The following notes were taken in real time, and may be a bit dodgy...

Dr Cameron: a good overview of the benefits of solar energy: decentralised energy supply, energy security, air quality improvement, future high tech industry, net positive return to Society, Stopping deforestation, rural electrification and fast deployment (e.g 10MWp of solar PV in 8 weeks.)
- Compare motor vehicle ICE efficiency with PV at 15-18%.
- EU growth 24% up to 2003, now 39%, from EPIA analysis in Global Market Outlook for PV until 2013 - AT Kearney.
- FiT is win win for governments as they don't necessarily have to pay for it - the utility is expected to work it through, with its consumers.
- Declining cost per watt, currently dropping at about 14% p.a., expected to drop to about -5% in 2020.
- Huge end user market in Europe alone, estimated at 2.92 TWh (final energy consumption) which could be cost effective enough to power 76% of total European demand - more realistically, maybe 21% (up to ~20%) - still a challenging goal.
- "PV is an effective instrument for global climate change mitigation", providing appropriate support mechanisms are available.
- Boosting PV is an investment - not a cost - yielding huge macro-economic benefits. - More aggressive deployment gives a more profitable investment.
- Between the US (15% in 2020, using PV and CSP) and the EU at 12%, we could create 6 million jobs - more than nuclear and coal together.

We all need to take action, as individuals, towns, cities, companies and societies.
Scalable solar technologies are available, NOW.

COP policy imperatives require:
binding CO2 emission reductions, including solar, technology transfer and appropriate funding mechanisms.

Simon Rolland
: The role and potential of PV in developing countries.
The Alliance unites private sector actors in order to speak with one voice, and
generates technical and financial solutions.
- Cumulative costs of diesel gensets vs PV/Diesel hybrid installations is compelling, especially over 8-9 years and longer.
- push for rural electrification is a political challenge, Sustainable and cost-effective solutions are required.
- the financing problem: can be addressed by subsidies, fee for service, output-based aid etc.
- Local challenges MUST be addressed - local ownership and responsibility, support, service etc.
- All stakeholders must work together - not a technology problem.

Adel El Gammal:
PV in the sunbelt countries
- <+/- 35' latitude = 63 countries with 75% of world population. 1.6 billion have no electricity...
- Most have great solar access: clean and competitive, quick to deploy, decarbonised, reliable, scalable.
- possibly 60% drop in costs by 2020 (6-9 eurocents/kWh) - NREL/AT Kearney "EPIA set for 2020".
- 95% of the PV potential (250-560 GWhp) is concentrated in 20 countries.

- PV is mature, evolving and gaining efficiency, but IT WORKS, and doesn't need to be trialled.
- equally suitable for developed and developing countries
- assisting cities with distributed generation, smart grid support and quick rollout
- requires binding, ambitious targets
finance mechanisms, and technology transfer.

Rhone Resch:
Seizing the solar solutions: combating climate change through accelerated deployment - DOWNLOADABLE go to http://www.solarcop15.org/

In US, SEIA has 1000 member companies, 60,000 employees, 14 state and regional chapters, and is represented in dozens of countries including APVA.

Covers both solar hot water, PV and concentrating solar power (CSP)

India: 1-1.5 GW of solar by 2012, 20 GW by 2020. using subsidies, soft loans, low import tariffs
China: 20 GWp of cumulative capacity by 2020, 1.6 million jobs, Renewable energy law and FiT, BiPV and solar thermal applications supported.
US: by 2020 generation of 15% of electricity: 12% of PV and CSP, 3% avoided electricity. (Contrary to US naysayers). 880,000 jobs.

- Exponential growth should continue, even improve.
- Need policies now - leadership evident at home (!)
- Solar Bill of Rights www.solarbillofrights.org
1. everyone has a right to put solar on their homes or business (Al Gore fought and won.)
2. everyone has the right to connect to the grid with uniform national standards (like the web).
3. everyone has the right to net meter and compensated at, at least the full retail rate.
4. The solar industry has a right to fair, competitive environment (cf other energy industries - level playing fields).
5. Solar industry has the right to equal access to public lands (like oil industry).
6. Solar industry has a right to sell its power across a new, 21st century transmission grid.
7. everyone has the right to purchase solar electricity from their utility.
8. everyone has the right to the highest ethical standards from the solar industry.

- 85,000 coal jobs constant in US at present, compared with 65,000 solar employees right now.
- projected cross-over against electricity by 2017, without carbon pricing.
- check out web site!

We can use solar now!

Questions:
- Desertec
- Bergen NORWAY, building all Passiv Haus buildings with 50% solar-based heating - impressive, given high latitude. NB: In US (Calif) houses with PV sell faster, for a premium.
- Need to build solar infrastructure in from new, even if not using solar initially - architects and builders, including BiPV.
- Reliability and sustainability in for example, Nigeria?

2nd Wed: ICLEI Local Govt Climate Roadmap

This afternoon we attended an ICLEI side event, featuring Sir Nicholas Stern (sorry, no photo - I wasn't organised, but he was good!), and the Mayors of Melbourne, Johannesburg, Seattle, Delhi, Mexico (super)City and the ex-Mayor of Bonn (now chair of world council of mayors, since Cop11 (Kyoto)). Note that COP16 with be in Mexico City, maybe midyear. Some of the presentations included:

The Melbourne Mayor spoke of the week leading up to Black Saturday. He said that whether it was caused by climate change or not, it was a sneak peek at the coming world - and it's not good. He said that after a week of >40'c days, Melbourne was near breakpoint: the grid was straining, many buildings and systems were strained, people were tired and prone to making mistakes - an all round bad scene.

Seattle. He assumed that in 2000, the federal government was working on what we now know as climate change. He was mistaken, and it became clear in 2005 that with a cancelled snow season, there was no water, and therefore no (hydro) electricity, and he needed to do something. Seattle is on track to achieving a Kyoto-like target, and he challenged across the US - now 1016 other mayors have signed on.

World Council. Local government is key to addressing climate change. With more than 50% of humans living in cities, we must make cities work sustainably. She made a plea for the local government role to remain in the (Kyoto-ish) text.

There were other statements, and the Melbourne Mayor participated in a constructive and spirited way, which was good to witness.

2nd Wed: Senator Kerry on US Foreign Relations

We got seats to listen to Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the US Foreign Relations Committee. Yvo de Boaer was there, also the Chair of the IPCC.

Very inspiring, very straight forward. He's a great speaker - makes me feel like he's talking just to me, although maybe it's because I am directly in line with the transparent queue reader 8<)). He re-iterated that one can't be half pregnant - it's a binary situation. Either we HAVE climate change, or we don't - you can't sit on the fence. He challenged the non-believers to cite a single example of man-made climate change NOT happening, and wished them "good luck!".

Long a reliable and passionate supporter of the effort, Kerry was at Rio in 92, and Bali in '07, and most COPs in between. He pushed for a price on carbon, reducing emissions, send low emission signals, unleash the free market to address the problem. He says that the US is moving in the right direction - US$80BN, raise US vehicle fuel economy, $350Bn for Stephen Chu's programme, 33 States "on board", >1,000 Mayors are achieving Kyoto targets, WITHOUT Federal assistance. Even a national mandatory emissions target, as well as the EPA regulation threat.

Getting the legislation through the Senate is still a challenge, but it WILL happen. Carbon MUST be priced. International, legally binding solutions are the only way forward. Accepting that "we" made the GHG problem, and we need to get on with helping to clean up and develop without creating more pollution. Finance is not negotiable. The US is 5% of the world's population, and 20% of total energy used. A global solution must include ALL countries, including China, Brazil, India - all of which have committed to improved energy intensities, outside Kyoto implications. Let's support them, and encourage ALL to make progress.

We need to build on the Bali Action Plan, including REDD, and international finance, with technology transfer. Fast starts are OK, but we need long term finance for the developing world.

He pushed for a mid 2010 continuation of the Copenhagen political solution, to create a binding agreement. Although emotions ebb and flow, we can't walk away from today's - and tomorrow's - progress. He closed by saying that after 700 days of planning, scheming, discussing (since Bali) - we as a race of people MUST succeed this Friday - and he received a standing ovation. Truly inspiring.

2nd Wed - we wait....

Better organisation to get in this morning, except they closed the metro stop and we walked the km or so up the road, under the metro and joined "the Q". So after starting an hour earlier, despite better channeling, and.... only 45 minutes - so not much change! However, as the snow stopped and it's now just damp and grey, it was quite refreshing. Today, they finally stopped registering people - they got to 45,000 - and remember that the limit was only 15k....

We got ourselves in, and attended the daily BINGO debrief, and then I went and joined the DHL line to send back some stuff. An hour later...

Anyway, the news is not good - but NOT so bad, either. There is rather too much stuff been left for the heavies to sort out, but they're giving it a go. The US got cained in last night's Fossils, for turning the three page Bunker and Aviation Fuel draft plot into a 7 page fully bracketed disaster. (The reason Bunkers is important is that it offers a way to serious financing of the LDC support effort, but the rumour is that the US delegation has been told that giving in on Bunkers will assure certain defeat of the US climate change legislation in Congress - get the picture?)

We have spoken with people from all sorts of places - Congo, Samoa, Russia, etc. There is so much good will at our level - it's very frustrating that we wait and wait for the elephants to mate....